The dollar in Colombia aligned itself with other countries in 2023 and it was not thanks to the increase in the minimum wage or drug trafficking
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According to the Financial Superintendency of Colombia (SFC), the price of dollar in this country it closed 2023 in $3,822.05the same figure with which 2024 began. With this, the US currency once again moved away from the line of $4,000 and the Colombian peso, the currency that strengthened the most in 2023 against it, was realigned with other currencies in the region.
In an analysis done by the economist Felipe Campos, Investment and Strategy Manager of Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria realized what happened. In it, she detailed the impact of the recession that several countries experienced last year.
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“Colombia realigns with the region. What it loses in 2022 it recovers in 20223. Several of these regional economies entered into recession in 2023. The dollar does not reflect that, it reflects countries dependent on similar raw materials and that the governments in power are not going to change them structurally. “Colombia realigns itself and stops standing out,” he explained.
Likewise, he clarified the possible relationship that the dollar has with the 12% increase in the minimum salary by 2024, which brought remuneration tol $1,300,000.
“The connection with the minimum wage in the short term is very weak. Furthermore, what they raise has to be greater than 16% last year so that prices do not drop,” he indicated.
Likewise, given the dynamics of the interest rate of the central banks and a more pronounced fall in the dollar compared to other countries, he pointed out that the region has higher rates, but they decrease more because Confidence in moderate and consensual changes in the country is recovered.
Likewise, Campos recalled that this realignment occurred despite the fact that so far in the Petro Government there has been talk of capital and price control, in addition to the virtues of printing, just as false information was given in reservation documents and support was requested in the streets. Likewise, there were messages that, although it is known today that they were not “serious,” at the time generated fear.
Another very encouraging detail that Felipe Campos gave is that the Colombian external debt measured in pesos recovered levels from July 2022, while the dollar is trading below the value of the June 2022 elections, when Gustavo Petro obtained the Presidency of the Republic.
However, he indicated that in dollars it continues to increase USD190 billion.
The Investment and Strategy Manager of Alianza Valores y Fiduciaria, Felipe Campos, also referred to the controversy generated by the president Gustavo Petro for saying that the rise or fall of the dollar was because of the drug trafficking.
Exactly, among other things, the president pointed out that “if the Colombian peso fell, it shows an economic reality, and that is that cocaine dollars are no longer entering Colombia, they are staying on the road, they are staying on Wall Street “New York.”
He did it, curiously, at the first assembly of coca growers in the Catatumbo.
Faced with this, Campos pointed out that, although drug trafficking handles significant numbers, investors do not use them in determining the value of the dollarperhaps, because of how difficult it is to establish these numbers.
“The cure for that opinion and also for the long-term influence of governments on the value of the dollar is just a graph,” he noted.
He concluded by clarifying that Colombian drug trafficking does not explain the dollar in Brazil, nor the presidents and much less the local political deviations of them or the Colombians that only lasted in the short term.
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