The dollar in Colombia began 2024 with a strong rebound and analysts already see it above $4,000
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He dollar price American in Colombia closed the day on January 2, 2024 with an average of $3,896.19. This meant an increase of $74.14 compared to the Representative Market Rate (TRM), which stood at $3,822.05.
The North American currency had an opening price of $3,890.00, hit a maximum of $3,918.00 and a minimum of $3,874.30. Furthermore, during the day, according to the platform Set-FX, More than USD817 million were traded in 1,303 transactions.
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With reference to the profitability of the last seven days, the US dollar accumulates an increase of 1.35%; but in year-on-year terms it still maintains a decrease of 18.09%.
In relation to the changes of this day with respect to past dates, with this value it ended the streak that it had in the previous four days. Refering to volatility in recent days, it presented a behavior manifestly lower than the volatility reflected in the last year’s data, which shows that it is having a more stable behavior than what the general trend indicates recently.
In this regard, the manager of Fénix Valor, Orlando Santiagoexplained that the move corresponds to a situation investment. This, because the currency market began 2024 with negative macroeconomic data in Europe, mainly due to data from the Manufacturing PMI, that indicator that reflects the activity of the sector and the inventories of the countries. For example, that of Spain stood at 46.2 points.
“In this sense, to the extent that they are below 50 points, they show contraction. In this case, not only is it below 50 points, but it was also below expectations. Something similar happened in Italy (44.4 points) and Germany (43.1 points),” he said.
He said that by not having much more macroeconomic data in the world, the United States PMI was the big surprise when falling 47.9 after having been at 49.4 in November, which mainly caused the price of WTI oil had a fall of 1.58%.
On the other hand, analysts expect that by 2024 the exchange rate will continue to strengthen and once again surpass the barrier of $4,000. For example, the chief economist of Scotiabank Colpatria, Sergio Olarteindicated that the North American currency could close this year at $4,116, due to the entire international panorama in relation to economic growth, interest rates and inflation.
“Last month, large central banks in the world such as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the United States indicated that interest rates would stop rising, generating interest in emerging assets, such as Colombian ones. It is also observed that global inflation is subsiding and gradually returning to the goals of central banks. In addition, government support for consumption is being reduced, which could cause a slowdown in the global economy, especially in Europe and Asia. This could affect the prices of raw materials and Colombian exports in the short term,” he stated.
Finally, he said that ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Palestine, They are relevant tensions to follow to evaluate the impact on Colombia’s export demand and, therefore, on the local exchange rate.
Meanwhile, the results of the Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey December reveal that the analysts consulted expect that by the end of 2024 the rate will be $4,150, which shows a decrease compared to the November forecast, when they projected that it would close at $4,183.
Despite this, the president Gustavo Petrogiven the bearish dynamics that the dollar had been experiencing in Colombia in recent days, stated through x (before Twitter) that the revaluation that the Colombian peso has today, good for some things, but bad for unleashing productive exports, has its origin in the fact that interest rate (13%) It is increasingly greater in real terms compared to the world.
“In the world, real interest rates will begin to fall, increasing the gap that makes dollars flow into the country. I believe that the Board of the Bank of the Republic must look at this new reality and lower the national interest rate even further,” he wrote on the social network.
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