The BCRA debt with importers grew by USD 9,000 million: the strategy to normalize foreign trade

Since the government of Javier Milei The commercial debt increased by more than USD 9,000 million and explained a large part of the reserves that the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) has accumulated since then. With the USD 30,000 million of stock in force before December 13, it is a possible pressure that economists look closely at in view of the objective of withdrawing the exchange rate as soon as possible.

As far as he could know Infobae From sources from the economic team, this is part of the strategy designed by the Government: quickly add a cushion of foreign currency and let foreign trade flow in the face of a situation of drowning of companies that was critical.

He head of research from Romano Group, Salvador Vitelli, estimated that the “new” commercial debt for imports of goods totaled USD 9.39 billion from December 13 to February 29, the latest official data available. The BCRA bought foreign currency for about USD 8.5 billion in that period, after the exchange rate jump.

The economist showed the path towards the normalization of the official roadmap: “in February, imports worth USD 4,093 million were authorized while 42% of what was accrued was paid. It is the best level since October 2023 in relative terms and since September in absolute terms. In December only 17% had been paid and in January 24% of the total.”

In this regard, a source from the economic team told Infobae: “The idea is to advance the normalization of international trade. It was what we expected by design so that commerce can flow. We started at zero and with a trade deficit. That’s why we set the quotas, if imports increase the debt will grow. If they go down, it will be canceled.” The recession outlook can help the Government due to lower demand for foreign currency.

It is true that this front was one of the worst legacies left by the management of Sergio Massa in the Ministry of Economy. The famous Import System of the Argentine Republic (SIRA).

To sustain his electoral chances, in addition to the conviction that it was a “good tool,” the former Minister of Economy and presidential candidate promoted the indebtedness of companies as a way of entering inputs to sustain economic activity. Firms, particularly SMEs, ended up with very high commitments and worsening relationships with their suppliers.

A report from Fundación Capital reviewed that at the end of 2023, a commercial debt resulting from the difference between imports made and those paid was estimated to be USD 57.8 billion. The register that the BCRA opened with the arrival of Santiago Bausili recorded a total of USD 42.6 billion, with a cut-off date of December 13.

“Thus, given that the commercial debt of the last five years averaged USD 29.1 billion per year (and assuming it as a ‘normal’ level of commercial credit), about USD 13.5 billion would be the extra to be regularized, according to the authorities. Of this total, some USD 11.2 billion would be resolved with the different tools proposed to date,” he highlighted the work of the entity he founded. Martin Redrado.

The chosen tool was the Bonus for the Reconstruction of a Free Argentina (Bopreal), in its different launches, for which importers left their pesos and received a title denominated in dollars, a novelty for the BCRA, which does not issue that currency. Bopreal 1 reached subscriptions for USD 5,000 million and 2 added USD 2,000 million. To this is added USD 1.2 billion of access that SMEs had.

Bopreal 3 added just USD 981 million of the USD 3,000 million that the tender has as a margin. This series is less attractive because it is not exempt from the PAIS tax, it cannot be used to pay taxes, it does not provide exceptional access to the Exchange Market, it has a shorter duration and the decrease in the exchange gap does not help.

To those almost USD 30,000 million of debt, a new debt was added since December 13 due to the differential quota scheme for access to foreign currency to pay abroad. communication “A” 7,917 of the BCRA. Availability is immediate for hydrocarbons and energy, pharmaceuticals and fertilizers is 30 days, cars and luxury goods 180 days and the rest is 25% every 30 days. It was recently lowered to 30 days for some 3,000 tariff positions for products in the basic basket.

“The percentage of paid external purchases of goods will rise to 59% in March, in April to 79.8%, in May 96.4% and June 103.2%, since they will begin to pay for cars and luxury goods entered in December. Towards the last third of the year it will be 119.3%. The stock of “new” commercial debt of about USD 9,000 million is not expected to increase due to a very positive commercial surplus in 2024 (USD19,026 million)”, Fundación Capital projected.

The director of the consulting firm Analytica, Claudio Caprarulo, explained that the drop in imports in February begins to better reflect the current economic situation. “December and January were influenced by orders that were made in months of uncertainty, where there were more restrictions and activity was higher,” said the economist.

“The deferred payment scheme for imports largely explains the accumulation of reserves in the first months, which is why agricultural exports and the impact of the recession are key once the payment of imports is regularized,” Caprarulo pointed out.

In that sense, Salvador Vitelli commented: “The Central bought about USD 10,000 million, although it added fewer net reserves because there were debt payments in the middle. Since April, the Government hopes to have some cushion of dollars that will allow it to be comfortable.”