Another victory for the Taiwanese ruling party predicts four more years of tension with Beijing

Javier Castro and Jesús Centeno

Taipei/Beijing, Jan 9 (EFE).- China considers Taiwan a rebellious province that it is not going to renounce and a new victory for the party that governs the island in the elections this Saturday predicts four more years of tensions and pressure by Beijing.

In recent weeks, the Chinese Executive has raised the tone against the official candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (PDP), William Lai, favorite in the polls and current vice president, whom it has accused of being a “separatist” and of “lacking moral integrity.” “.

Also of “spreading rumors” after he denounced “interference” from China to “influence” the elections, such as the alleged sending of ‘spy balloons’ to the vicinity of the island or having asked the Taiwanese to choose “between peace and war.”

China’s sympathies are more than clear: Beijing prefers a victory for the opposition, whether for Hou Yu-ih (KMT) or Ko Wen-je (TPP), rather than the continuity of Lai, who has been leading the polls for some time. months, posing the elections as a choice between “dictatorship and democracy” to win victory and make his party the first to remain in power for more than two consecutive terms.

Although none of the candidates talk about breaking the current status quo, in which Taiwan has not formally declared independence but is not under the control of China, a new victory for the PDP – the third in a row – constitutes the worst-case scenario for Beijing, that hopes to complete national “reunification” before 2049, when it will be one hundred years since the birth of the People’s Republic of China.

Under the current PDP Government, relations between China and Taiwan have suffered a significant setback, with daily incursions by the Chinese Army into Taiwanese territory and an increasingly aggressive discourse in favor of “reunification.”

This has led Taipei to increase its military spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) – the highest since 2013 -, increase the purchase of weapons from the United States and extend mandatory military service from four to twelve months. starting in 2024.

Thus, Lai promises to maintain Tsai’s policies if he is president, based on four pillars: promoting military deterrence, strengthening the island’s economic security, deepening relations with the world’s main democracies and maintaining a pragmatic policy towards China.

Experts quoted by the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post consider several scenarios, from “briefly cutting off supply routes to the small Taiwanese islands located a few kilometers from the mainland” to “accumulating troops in the nearby province of Fujian” despite the risk “of things get out of control.”

They also suggest that Beijing could intensify drone overflights or suspend the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement signed in 2010 during the last Kuomingtang (KMT) government, something that would hurt the island given that China represents 35.3% of its exports. .

Meanwhile, KMT candidate Hou, Beijing’s preferred option, is committed to preserving peace in the Strait through what is known as the “3D” strategy: deterrence, dialogue and détente; while Ko, more ambiguous than the other two candidates regarding his policy towards the continent, advocates recovering communication with Beijing through mutual recognition and respect.

But for the Asian giant, the problem is also sociological: according to the latest data from the National Chengchi University, only 30.5% of island citizens identify as Taiwanese and Chinese, while the proportion of those who see themselves themselves only as Taiwanese rises to 62.8%.

And China, beyond ensuring that “reunification” is “inevitable,” has insisted to the Taiwanese that they have to make “the right decision” in the elections, which its officials have referred to as a crucial election “between peace and war” and “between prosperity and recession.

Beijing has also stressed that it will not tolerate “foreign interference” in Taiwan, and in that sense it is worth noting that Lai will participate in the elections accompanied by Bi-khim Hsiao, until now Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States, which predicts a close relationship. with Washington seeking protection and support in the face of growing military and diplomatic intimidation from China.

On Sunday, China announced sanctions against five American companies for selling weapons to Taiwan, warning of “a strong and determined response” if it continues to do so.

Whatever happens in the elections, it seems clear that the Taiwanese issue will continue to be one of the main points of friction between Beijing and Washington, which, apart from being Taipei’s main arms supplier, could find itself in the position of having to defend the island in case of conflict. EFE

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